NBA Draft Combine: A Proving Ground as Stay-or-Go Decisions Loom

The 2025 NBA Draft Combine is in full swing in Chicago, and for a number of prospects with college eligibility remaining, this is crunch time. With the early entry withdrawal deadline looming (May 28), players like Yaxel Lendeborg, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Byrd, Milos Uzan, and Darrion Williams aren’t just auditioning for NBA teams; they’re also weighing whether to begin their professional careers or return to college.

It’s a pivotal fork in the road. And in today’s basketball landscape, the variables have changed dramatically from what they once were.

Combine Context: From Shooting Drills to Live Play 

Yesterday marked Day 1 of the Combine. We received official measurements, athletic testing results, and objective data that help confirm or challenge what we’ve seen on film and through the eye test. That part of the process is always valuable.

But sitting through hours of mostly non-contact shooting drills? It was a long day. Somewhat helpful, but not particularly revealing.

Today is when things really get going. Live 5-on-5 play begins, where stock can rise or fall. For players on the fringe, it’s an opportunity to compete, stand out, and show NBA teams what they bring to the table.

This is the part of the Combine that really matters.

Posturing, Pressure, and Who’s Actually “All In”

One dynamic that always emerges this time of year is posturing from both players and agents. You’ll hear confident declarations like, “We’re all in on the NBA Draft.” Sometimes that’s true. Other times, it’s a calculated bluff intended to demonstrate commitment to NBA teams while quietly boosting NIL leverage in the college market.

There’s a lot of smoke and mirrors in play right now.

But the truth will come out soon enough. With the withdrawal deadline approaching, we’re about to find out who’s really staying in and who’s heading back to school.

My guess? Many of these players will take the NIL bag over draft-day uncertainty.

NIL Has Changed the Equation

The rise of NIL has completely shifted the risk-reward balance for college players considering the NBA. These days, many are being paid seven figures annually through NIL deals.

And it’s not just elite NBA prospects. Plenty of accomplished college players with uncertain pro futures are also cashing in. That includes those who might go late in the second round or not be drafted at all.

Now compare that to a two-way NBA contract, which is set to pay around $635,000 next season if fully earned. By rule, no more than half of that amount can be guaranteed. In that scenario, staying in college with a sizable NIL package more often than not becomes the logical business decision.

Real-Time Example: Boogie Fland

One recent example of a player making this type of decision is Boogie Fland. The McDonald’s All-American, who played at Arkansas this past season, entered both the NBA Draft process and the transfer portal. He was initially set to participate in the Combine but has since withdrawn entirely from the draft process.

The word around Chicago? Boogie is expected to earn several million dollars by returning to college next season, though it's still unclear which school he’ll land at.

Honestly, I get it. Get your money, Boogie.

Use the college platform to develop and showcase your growth, and come back next year with more leverage. For a player in Boogie's situation, that’s how you win in this new era. Well done.

Transfer Portal Meets Draft Process

Other players like RJ Luis Jr. (St. John’s) and Darrion Williams (Texas Tech) are in similar situations. They are weighing whether to stay in the draft while also figuring out where they’ll transfer if they return to school. That’s a lot to navigate at once.

Then there’s Yaxel Lendeborg, who has already committed to transferring from UAB to Michigan if he goes back while still testing the NBA Draft waters. This kind of dual-track decision-making adds even more complexity to an already challenging process.

The Draft Risk

Unless you’re projected as a surefire first-round pick, the draft path is filled with uncertainty. First-round contracts come with guaranteed money. Second-round deals, however, are fully negotiable and far less secure. Many players end up on two-way contracts or spend time in the G League, which is not quite as glamorous as being the big man on campus at a major program.

Others go undrafted and must fight for a shot in the Summer League or work their way up through the G League. Meanwhile, college stars who return to school are making real money and gaining valuable time to develop their game, build their brand, and improve their draft stock for the future.

For players like Milos Uzan, Miles Byrd, and Tahaad Pettiford, who are talented prospects but do not likely have a guaranteed draft slot, the risk of going pro now may outweigh the reward.

However, the Combine gives them a chance to change that. A strong performance could lead to a verbal commitment from a team, whether as a guaranteed first-round pick or an early second-rounder with a quiet understanding that a solid deal is waiting.

But without that kind of assurance, the smarter move may be to return to school. In today’s system, there are plenty of reasons to wait.

My Advice: Don’t Rush

This process is a grind. The Combine, the interviews, the speculation — all of it moves quickly. But here’s the thing: your career is a long-term journey. 

If you are not a clear-cut first-round pick, there is no shame in returning to school. In fact, it might be the smartest move you can make for your development and your financial future. 

Build your game. Build your brand. Come back with more leverage and a healthy financial nest egg.

Final Thoughts

The number of tough decisions playing out in real time during this pre-draft cycle is fascinating. With the transfer portal wide open and NIL money flowing, players have more options and more power than ever before.

We’re watching a transition unfold. The old model of rushing to the pros is giving way to a more measured and strategic approach.

Take your time. Be smart. And don’t be afraid to run it back.