No. 15 Florida vs No. 4 Duke: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction
- Joseph Klein
- 9 hours ago
- 3 min read
Date: December 2, 2025
Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Time: 6:30 PM ET on ESPN
How do these two teams match up?
The Florida Gators come into this game with a 5–2 record after a win against Providence. They rank 24th in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Florida’s offense has been very one-sided so far this season; they’ve struggled heavily from three, ranking 263rd nationally in three-point percentage. Because of that, they’ve leaned on inside scoring, and they’ve been elite around the rim, ranking fifth in the country in near-proximity field-goal percentage.
Thomas Haugh has been the key contributor for this Florida team. He’s averaging 17.9 points and 7.9 rebounds, stepping into the go-to role the Gators needed. Alex Condon has also been strong inside, averaging 15+ points, though his status for this game is uncertain. If Condon is unable to play, Ruben Chinyelu will take on a bigger role; he’s been productive as well, averaging 11.1 points, most of which come in the paint. Guard Boogie Fland has played a key role, too, averaging 12+ points per game. While Fland has performed well, Florida is still looking for more consistent guard play. Transfer Xaivian Lee has yet to fully break out, though he flashed potential last game against Providence.
Despite some offensive struggles, Florida has made up for it on defense. They rank 10th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Their defense has been highlighted by their versatility; they’re top-10 nationally in both opponent three-point percentage and near-paint field-goal percentage. They’ll face a major challenge against a red-hot Duke offense.
Duke enters this game with an impressive 8–0 record. They rank fifth in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. When Duke gets shots up, they’ve been as efficient as anyone, ranking third in overall field-goal percentage. They’ve also been much stronger than Florida from the perimeter, sitting inside the top-40 in three-point percentage. The key player for the Blue Devils has been Cameron Boozer.
Boozer has been a massive storyline, and deservedly so. He’s averaging 22.9 points and 9.8 rebounds per game and is coming off a dominant 35-point performance against Arkansas. Duke has surrounded him well. Patrick Ngongba II has provided a needed interior presence. In the backcourt, Isaiah Evans has averaged 12+ points, and Caleb Foster has shot an impressive 48% from three.
Defensively, Duke has been just as good, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency. As much as Duke’s offense prides itself on efficiency, their defense prides itself on taking that efficiency away. The Blue Devils allow the second-lowest field-goal percentage in the country and also rank 11th nationally in defending near-proximity shots.
Keys for Florida to Win
Stop Cameron Boozer. Boozer has been incredible. He’s ignited this Duke team on both ends and energized the fans. If the Gators can limit Boozer, they give themselves a real chance.
Someone other than Thomas Haugh has to step up. Haugh has been everything for Florida’s offense, but he cannot be the only reliable option if they want to keep pace. Duke has a high-powered attack, and Florida needs complementary scoring. Xaivian Lee or Boogie Fland could be the difference.
The Perimeter. Florida has been poor from three-point range, while Duke has been far better. If Duke makes 10+ more threes than Florida, this game could get ugly. The Gators must find a way to convert from deep.
Keys for Duke to Win
Limit Thomas Haugh. If Duke makes Haugh uncomfortable, Florida’s offense becomes much easier to defend. If they can force the ball out of his hands and keep him under 15 points, Duke should be in strong control.
Play Duke Basketball. Duke’s offense has clicked regardless of what defenses have shown. They simply need to lean into what they do best. Florida will have a plan, but as long as Duke stays comfortable in their sets, they should dictate the game.
Final Thoughts
Florida, just two games ago, lost to TCU and has yet to beat a ranked opponent. Duke, meanwhile, is undefeated with multiple ranked wins. This game comes down to which team can slow down the opposing star forward and which supporting cast rises to the moment. Can Duke contain Thomas Haugh? Can Florida find a way to disrupt Cameron Boozer?
Both teams will game-plan for the matchup, but I trust Duke’s role players more than Florida’s. The Blue Devils have shown very few weaknesses early in the year.
I’m taking the 8–0 Blue Devils.
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