No. 16 North Carolina vs No. 18 Kentucky: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction
- Joseph Klein
- Dec 1, 2025
- 3 min read
Date: December 2, 2025
Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Time: 9:30 PM ET on ESPN
How Do These Two Teams Match Up?
The UNC Tar Heels enter this game coming off a tough loss to Michigan State, a game in which they struggled from three, shooting just 17.4%. To beat a strong Kentucky team, UNC will need drastic improvement from beyond the arc. Overall, the Tar Heels rank 42nd in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. While they’ve had stretches of inconsistency, there have also been standout individual performances.
Freshman Caleb Wilson has been the brightest spot on the roster, averaging 19.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. He’s a highlight play waiting to happen and brings elite talent to this UNC group. Center Henri Veesaar, the Arizona transfer, has also stepped up with 15.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
However, the guard position has been thin. Seth Trimble was playing well before his injury, and in his absence, Luka Bogavac has been the one consistent guard, averaging 12 points and 3.4 assists. Outside of him, guard play has been inconsistent across the board.
On the Kentucky side, the Wildcats enter riding a two-game win streak. They rank 17th in offensive efficiency per KenPom. Offensively, Kentucky has played as a balanced, connected unit with five players averaging double figures and none above 15 points per game. Their strength lies in strong guard depth; Denzel Aberdeen, Collin Chandler, and Otega Oweh are all averaging double digits and can create a bucket when needed.
Defensively, Kentucky has been dominant. They rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency and sit top five in both field-goal percentage and three-point percentage allowed. Down low, Malachi Moreno has been a force at 7'0", and his rim protection causes problems for opposing guards and bigs.
Kentucky’s two losses both involved defensive lapses on the perimeter, giving up 13 threes to Louisville and allowing Michigan State to shoot 50% from deep.
Keys for UNC to Win
Guard Depth. UNC’s guard rotation is limited beyond Luka Bogavac. Kyan Evans or Derek Dixon must step up significantly. In the ranked win over Kansas, Evans had 12 points and 2 steals, the type of impact they’ll need again.
Caleb Wilson. Wilson is the engine of this team. When he’s rolling, UNC looks like a top-15 squad. In the win over Kansas, he finished with 24 points and 7 rebounds. He must be elite once again.
The Perimeter. UNC is coming off a game in which it made only 3 threes. Kentucky is elite at guarding the arc. If UNC doesn’t hit at least five threes, this matchup could get ugly. The pathway to beating Kentucky is stretching them out and making perimeter shots.
Keys for Kentucky to Win
Limit Caleb Wilson. Wilson runs everything for UNC’s offense. If Kentucky holds him below 15 points, the Tar Heels will struggle to find efficient scoring elsewhere, especially in one-on-one situations.
Play as a Team. Kentucky is at its best when the offense is shared, and the ball is moving. When everyone contributes, their sets flow smoothly, and they avoid stagnation. They don’t need a hero, just their usual balance.
Final Thoughts
This matchup sets up to be a scrappy, defensive-minded game centered around two questions:
Can UNC keep the three-point differential manageable?
Can Kentucky slow down Caleb Wilson?
All things considered, I’m taking UNC in this one.
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