No. 23 Louisville vs No. 5 Duke: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction
- Joseph Klein
- Jan 25
- 4 min read
Date: January 26, 2026
Venue: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, NC)
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET | ESPN
Two high-powered teams, two very different identities. Louisville will want to turn this into a three-point math problem. Duke will want to make it a game in the paint: physical, efficient, and controlled. The matchup comes down to whether Louisville can generate enough perimeter offense to offset Duke’s interior advantages.
How They Match Up
Louisville: Live by the Three, Score in Bunches
Louisville enters at 14-5 and is coming off a game versus Virginia Tech in which they moved the ball well, with four players in double figures, after previously posting a 100-point outing in a 41-point win over Pittsburgh while hitting 51.7% from three.
This offense is built around spacing and volume:
KenPom: 7th in offensive efficiency
Style: second nationally in three-point attempts per game
Balance: despite the perimeter-heavy approach, Louisville is also efficient at the rim, ranking in the top 20 in near-proximity field-goal percentage
Ryan Conwell has been the engine, averaging 19.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game while taking 10.2 threes per game and hitting 37%. His shooting ability warps defenses and opens up everything else.
The return of Mikel Brown Jr. is a major swing factor. He’s averaging 16.6 points per game and is now back for a second game after missing eight. Louisville is 9-1 with Brown Jr., which speaks to what he adds as a scorer and shot creator.
Isaac McKneely (12.0 PPG) is another key piece, and Louisville needs him to snap out of a recent funk to keep the floor spaced against Duke’s interior presence. J’Vonne Hadley (10.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG) provides steady two-way production.
Up front, Louisville leans on 6’11” Sananda Fru (10.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG), with Khani Rooths (6.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG) playing a larger role as a backup. But this is where the matchup gets steep: Louisville’s frontcourt simply doesn’t have the depth or physicality to comfortably absorb what Duke brings inside.
Louisville Defense: Strong Midrange, Vulnerable Inside
Louisville ranks 32nd in KenPom defensive efficiency and has been excellent at limiting midrange success: top five in midrange FG% allowed. The problem has been dealing with size and interior scoring, especially when opponents can consistently punish them around the rim and on the glass.
That weakness has shown up repeatedly:
vs. Stanford: Chisom Okpara — 17 points, 8 rebounds
vs. Tennessee: Nate Ament, Jaylen Carey — 25 points, 17 rebounds combined
vs. Arkansas: Trevon Brazile — 21 points
vs. Indiana (win): Tucker DeVries — 26 points
vs. Virginia: Johann Grunloh — 16 points, 7 rebounds, 4 blocks
vs. Duke (first meeting): Cameron Boozer — 27 points, 8 rebounds
That trend matters against a Duke team designed to punish exactly that.
Duke: Win the Paint, Win the Game
Duke enters at 18-1 on a seven-game winning streak, with multiple ranked wins during the stretch, including a victory over Louisville.
Offensively, the Blue Devils are built on efficiency and shot quality:
KenPom: 5th in offensive efficiency
Efficiency: 8th nationally in overall FG%
Profile: average from three (102nd in 3PT%), but dominant inside and in the midrange
Interior finishing: making near-proximity shots at a 65.92% clip, with strong volume near the rim
Cameron Boozer is the headliner and a matchup nightmare. The freshman is producing 23.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per game, clearly Duke’s go-to option. And he’s not alone. Patrick Ngongba II (10.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG) gives Duke another true interior weapon. At 6’11”, 250 pounds, Ngongba brings real physicality, rim pressure, and lob threat value. Together, Boozer and Ngongba form a punishing 1–2 punch that can dictate the game.
In the backcourt, Isiah Evans leads the scoring at 14.6 PPG, with Caleb Foster adding 9.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. In the first meeting vs. Louisville, Evans and Foster combined for 43 points, and if Louisville has to overhelp inside, Duke’s guards will get clean looks and driving lanes.
Duke Defense: Rim Protection and Shot Deterrence
Duke has been elite on this end:
KenPom: 6th in defensive efficiency
FG% defense: 12th-lowest allowed nationally
Tradeoff: willing to concede three-point attempts (top 100 in threes allowed per game)
Strength: top 10 in near-proximity FG% allowed
Boozer and Ngongba anchor everything. Their presence forces opponents into tougher decisions: face length at the rim or settle for jumpers. Against Louisville, that dynamic is amplified because the Cardinals already want to fire from deep.
Keys to the Game
Keys for Louisville to Win
Three-Point Shooting: This is always the variable. Louisville must shoot it well from deep to keep pace and stay out of Duke’s interior trap.
Frontcourt Survival: They won’t shut down Boozer and Ngongba II. But Louisville has to limit the damage: avoid foul trouble, compete on the glass, and make Duke work for touches instead of giving up clean paint looks all night.
Keys for Duke to Win
Establish the Inside Game: Duke doesn’t need to win the three-point volume battle; Louisville is built to win that by design. Duke needs to turn this into a paint-dominant game where Louisville has no answers and eventually overcommits.
Perimeter Discipline: Louisville lives and dies by the three. Duke’s job is to make every look contested and eliminate rhythm catch-and-shoot opportunities. If Louisville is forced into difficult, late-clock threes, Duke’s interior edge becomes decisive.
Final Thoughts
This matchup features contrasting strengths that are both clear and extreme:
Duke: physical, dominant interior scoring with elite rim protection
Louisville: high-volume three-point shooting with explosive scoring potential
Duke won the first meeting on the road, and now the series shifts to Cameron. The return of Mikel Brown Jr. gives Louisville more punch and a better chance to create offense when the threes aren’t falling. But Duke is the more complete, balanced team, and their ability to control the paint is the one advantage Louisville likely won't be able to fully counter.
Prediction: Duke wins comfortably.
