No. 4 Arizona vs No. 2 Houston: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction
- Joseph Klein
- 4 minutes ago
- 4 min read
No. 4 Arizona (24-2) vs. No. 2 Houston (23-3)
Date:Â February 21, 2026
Location:Â Fertitta Center, Houston, Texas
Time: 3:00 PM ET on ABC
How do these two teams match up?
The Arizona Wildcats enter this matchup at 24–2 after a much-needed home win over the BYU Cougars. Prior to that victory, Arizona dropped back-to-back games against the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Tech Red Raiders. In the bounce-back performance, it wasn’t the stars who carried the load; key role players stepped up. Ivan Kharchenkov finished with 18 points and 7 rebounds, while Anthony Dell’Orso poured in a season-high 22 points to help get the Wildcats back on track.
According to KenPom, Arizona ranks 11th nationally in offensive efficiency and holds the 14th-highest field goal percentage in the country. Their offense is built around paint production. The Wildcats attempt the fifth-fewest three-pointers in Division I, preferring to attack inside and generate high-percentage looks near the rim. However, they enter this game without star freshman Koa Peat and must now face one of the toughest interior defenses in the country in the Houston Cougars.
Without Peat, Arizona’s frontcourt will rely heavily on center Motiejus Krivas, who averages 10.8 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. Stepping into a larger role is Tobe Awaka, arguably one of the top rebounders in the Big 12. Awaka averages 9.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest and is relentless on the offensive glass. If Houston fails to box out, Awaka can quickly turn possessions into second-chance points.
Arizona’s offense extends beyond the frontcourt. Freshman guard Brayden Burries leads the team in scoring at 15.5 points per game, along with 4.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists, while shooting 37.6% from three. Guard Jaden Bradley adds 13.3 points and 4.7 assists per game, serving as the engine of the offense and pushing the tempo when opportunities arise.
Defensively, Arizona ranks 3rd in KenPom defensive efficiency. They allow the 9th-fewest near-proximity shots and the 3rd-lowest percentage on those attempts. The Wildcats also give up the 6th-lowest three-point percentage and rank 3rd nationally in overall field goal percentage allowed. Their defensive balance makes them one of the most complete teams in the country.
Houston enters this matchup following a road loss to Iowa State. Before that setback, the Cougars had won 14 of their previous 15 games and now look to respond against Arizona.
Offensively, Houston ranks 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency per KenPom. They rank 30th in three-point attempts per game and 12th in mid-range attempts. Unlike Arizona, Houston sits in the bottom 20 nationally in near-proximity shots attempted.
Houston’s biggest offensive strength is volume. The Cougars attempt more field goals than any team in the country, fueled by relentless offensive rebounding. Their ability to generate second-chance opportunities often tilts games in their favor.
That rebounding dominance starts in the frontcourt. Joseph Tugler averages 7.6 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, while Chris Cenac Jr. contributes 9.5 points and 7.6 rebounds. Cenac was especially impactful in the last outing, grabbing five offensive boards. Together, they consistently create extra possessions.
The Houston backcourt is led by star freshman Kingston Flemings, who averages 16.6 points and 5.3 assists per game. Flemings can create his own shot at any time and has shown poise in hostile environments. While he thrives attacking the paint, he’s also capable from beyond the arc. Emmanuel Sharp adds 16.5 points per game and shoots 38.5% from three, making him a constant perimeter threat. Milos Uzan rounds out the trio with 11.2 points and 4.1 assists per game, providing touch around the rim and reliable outside shooting.
Defense remains Houston’s identity. The Cougars rank 7th nationally in defensive efficiency. They allow the 3rd-lowest mid-range percentage, 14th-lowest three-point percentage, and 7th-lowest overall field goal percentage. Most importantly, Houston gives up the 15th-fewest near-proximity shots per game. That directly challenges Arizona’s offensive identity, setting up a pivotal battle in the paint.
Keys to the Game
Keys for Arizona
Secondary Scoring Production – Houston swarms opposing guards, making clean looks difficult. Burries and Bradley will draw heavy defensive attention, so Arizona’s role players must step up and convert open opportunities.
Win the Paint Battle – Arizona has dominated inside all season. Even without Koa Peat, they must find a way to generate efficient scoring in the paint against Houston’s interior defense.
Keys for Houston
Force Arizona to Shoot Threes – Houston must protect the paint and force Arizona into perimeter shots they are less comfortable taking. Limiting interior touches is critical.
Kingston Flemings in Big Moments – Top-five matchups often come down to late-game execution. Flemings has shown he embraces the spotlight. If the game is tight late, Houston will need him to deliver.
Final Thoughts
A top-five showdown on a Saturday; there’s nothing better. Two elite teams with contrasting offensive philosophies meet in Houston.
Houston:
Top 30 in three-point attempts per game
Bottom 20 in near-proximity shots attempted
Arizona:
Bottom 5 in three-point attempts per game
Offense centered around paint production
Ultimately, this game will be decided by which team imposes its style and forces the other out of its comfort zone.
Prediction: The absence of Koa Peat looms large. In a physical, defensive battle, Houston’s ability to control the paint and generate second-chance opportunities gives them the edge. Houston wins.
