No. 9 Michigan State vs No. 13 Nebraska: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction

Joseph Klein
4 days ago
3 min read

Date: January 2, 2026

Venue: Pinnacle Bank Arena (Lincoln, Nebraska)

TV: Peacock

Tip: 9:00 PM ET (8:00 PM CT)

Records: Michigan State (12–1), Nebraska (13–0)

Ranked Big Ten hoops is here, and this matchup delivers one of the best early conference play tests in the league.

Michigan State enters at 12–1 on a four-game winning streak, with its lone loss coming against Duke. According to KenPom, the Spartans rank 44th in offensive efficiency. On paper, they don’t overwhelm you offensively: they sit inside the top 100 in three-point percentage, overall field goal percentage, and finishing on close attempts.

The Spartans are led by Jaxon Kohler (13.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG). The 6-foot-9 forward has been a major offensive weapon and is shooting 46.7% from three. Fellow bigs Coen Carr and Carson Cooper have also been strong contributors, both averaging double figures while grabbing more than five rebounds per game. Michigan State’s forward group has been the backbone of this team.

In the backcourt, Jeremy Fears Jr. is the engine, averaging 11.5 points and 9.3 assists per game. Kur Teng has also been steady (7.0 PPG). The biggest concern for Michigan State is what happens when Fears is off the floor. The offense has been inconsistent in those minutes, and Nebraska will need to take advantage when he sits.

Where Michigan State truly thrives is on the defensive end. The Spartans rank 6th nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They are 3rd in opponent field goal percentage allowed and 17th in opponent three-point percentage allowed. Michigan State’s defensive approach encourages threes (top-30 in opponent three-point attempt rate), which sets up an intriguing chess match against Nebraska’s shot profile.

Nebraska comes in at 13–0 with one ranked win over Illinois, and this is its biggest test to date. Offensively, the Cornhuskers rank 37th in offensive efficiency on KenPom.

Nebraska is elite at the rim, ranking 1st nationally in close-two efficiency at 73.6%, despite ranking just 202nd in close-two attempts. Instead, the Cornhuskers lean heavily on the three-point shot, attempting the 14th-most threes per game while converting at a 34.5% clip.

A strong forward duo leads Nebraska: Pryce Sandfort and Rienk Mast, both averaging 16.5 points and more than five rebounds per game. Sandfort is also a high-volume shooter from deep (7.8 3PA/G, 38.2%). Braden Frager provides another scoring option up front (11.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG).

In the backcourt, Nebraska leans on Sam Hoiberg and Jamarques Lawrence, who each average 8.5+ points per game, with 3.8 and 3.9 assists, respectively.

Defensively, Nebraska ranks 28th in defensive efficiency. They allow the 10th-lowest field goal percentage in the country and permit the fewest close attempts nationally. Much like Michigan State, Nebraska is built to force jump shots, allowing the third-most three-point attempts in the country. That becomes a major storyline, especially since Michigan State has not attempted more than 28 threes in a game this season.

Keys for Michigan State to Win

1. Perimeter shooting: Nebraska will force Michigan State to live from deep. The Spartans have to hit open threes to make the Cornhuskers pay, or the game can swing away quickly.

2. Jeremy Fears Jr: Nebraska has struggled defending guards. Fears needs to exploit the matchup and elevate his playmaking. Illinois’ guards exposed Nebraska earlier this season:

Wagner: 19 points, 10 assists
Boswell: 20 points
Stojaković: 19 points, 10 rebounds

Illinois’ guards combined for 58 points. Michigan State doesn’t have the same guard depth, meaning Fears has to carry a heavy load.

Keys for Nebraska to Win

1. Force Michigan State into a three-point shootout: The Spartans aren’t used to relying on high three-point volume. If Nebraska can push Michigan State outside its comfort zone, it could tilt the game.

2. Win the forward battle: Both teams feature elite forward groups. This game may come down to which unit performs better. Sandfort and Mast need to be at their best.

3. Make threes: Michigan State concedes a high volume of three-point attempts by design. Nebraska has to capitalize from beyond the arc to punish that philosophy.

Final Thoughts

This matchup features two elite defenses and two teams built around forward play. The outcome likely comes down to shot-making, especially from three. Both defenses are designed to concede volume from deep; whichever team converts at a higher rate will have the edge.

Michigan State’s experience in ranked road environments gives the Spartans a slight edge.

I’ll back Michigan State to hand Nebraska its first loss of the season.