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UMass vs Florida State: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction

Florida State head coach Luke Loucks gives direction during a college basketball game.

Autonation Orange Bowl Classic

UMass vs Florida State


Date: December 13, 2025

Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, Florida

Time: 12:00 PM ET on ACC Network



How Do These Teams Match Up?


Florida State Seminoles


Florida State enters the matchup at 5–4, having won two of its last five games. Jacksonville transfer Robert McCray V leads the Seminoles in both scoring and assists, while senior Alex Steen controls the interior with his rebounding and rim protection.


KenPom Efficiency Rankings:

  • 124th in offensive efficiency

  • 77th in defensive efficiency

  • 96th in overall efficiency


From a statistical standpoint, Florida State is a high-volume perimeter shooting team, currently ranking second nationally in three-point attempts per game. They also rank in the top 15 in steals per game, showing their ability to pressure the ball defensively. However, that aggressive perimeter approach has come with inconsistency, as the Seminoles attempt a high number of threes but convert them at a low percentage.


Key Players:


  • Robert McCray V: 14.1 PPG, 6.8 APG — driver and distributor

  • Alex Steen: 8.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG — interior presence and anchor


Florida State is also a strong offensive rebounding team, giving them extra possessions to compensate for their shooting inefficiencies.



UMass Minutemen


UMass enters the contest at 7–3 and is riding a four-game winning streak, including a 2-point win over Boston College (76–74) in its most recent outing.


KenPom Efficiency Rankings:

  • 251st in offensive efficiency

  • 118th in defensive efficiency

  • 177th in overall efficiency


While the Minutemen play at a fast pace, they have struggled with low three-point and free-throw percentages, are turnover-prone, and have shown difficulty defending the paint.


Key Players:

  • Marcus Banks Jr.: 18.4 PPG, 1.3 SPG

  • Leonardo Bettiol: 16.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG


UMass runs a guard-heavy offense, with four players averaging at least 10 points and three players averaging more than 5 rebounds per game, giving them balance across the rotation.



Keys to the Game


For Florida State


  • Push tempo

  • Control the paint

  • Disrupt passing lanes

  • Generate clean three-point looks

  • Contain UMass’ activity in the post

  • Spread the ball around more

  • Take care of the ball offensively


For UMass


  • Contain Florida State’s post activity

  • Spread the ball effectively

  • Take care of the ball on offense

  • Apply interior pressure against a strong offensive rebounding team



Final Thoughts


Florida State is still finding its footing under new head coach Luke Loucks, but the Seminoles compete on every possession and look to lean into their identity as a shooting-based team. UMass enters playing its best basketball of the season, riding momentum from three straight wins while continuing to push tempo offensively.


Both teams bring clear strengths and identifiable weaknesses, setting up a matchup that should be shaped by ball security, interior control, and perimeter efficiency.


Pick: Florida State Seminoles

Preciser
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