Florida Atlantic vs South Florida: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction

Cameron Crumpton
Jan 25
2 min read

Matchup: Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida

Date: Jan. 25, 2026

Location: Yuengling Center (Tampa, FL)

Time/TV: 1:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Florida Atlantic enters at 6-1 in league play, while South Florida sits 4-2 and can make up ground with a win in Tampa. It’s the first meeting between the two, with a quick rematch coming just after Valentine’s Day. AAC standings positioning is on the line.

South Florida Snapshot

USF is 12-7 overall (4-2 AAC) and comes in after an overtime loss at home to Wichita State, followed by a bounce-back road win at UAB.

From a profile standpoint, the Bulls have been a productive offense with a high-possession style:

Efficiency profile: 77th in offensive rating, 80th in defensive rating
Team production: 34.1% from three, nearly 90 points per game, 43.1 rebounds per game
Recent context: won 4 of 6 since conference play began, with both losses coming in overtime (including a double-OT loss vs. UAB). The Wichita State loss was marked by issues on the glass, trouble finishing inside the arc, and a costly late turnover.

Key USF Players

Izaiyah Nelson: 15.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG — physical interior scorer and rebounder
Joseph Pinon: 14.7 PPG, 40.4% 3PT — efficient scorer and high-level perimeter shooter

Team Identity

USF wants to run. They play fast, ranking 15th nationally in pace, generating extra chances through tempo and volume in a “score-first” offensive approach.

Florida Atlantic Snapshot

FAU is 14-6 overall (6-1 AAC) and arrives on a five-game winning streak, with recent wins over Tulane and Temple.

Efficiency-wise, the Owls look solid and balanced:

Efficiency profile: 107th in offensive rating, 91st in defensive rating
Team production: 34.3% from three, 83.1 points per game, 39.4 rebounds per game

Key FAU Players

Devin Vanterpool: 15.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.6 APG — gritty high-motor two-way guard
Kanaan Carlyle: 14.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.2 APG — athletic playmaking combo guard

Team Identity

FAU plays a more controlled brand than USF, with contributions spread across the rotation (six players at 20+ minutes per game). The Owls lean defense-first, and their rim protection stands out, with nearly 6 blocks per game.

Keys to the Game

How USF wins

This is a pace-and-possession game for the Bulls. The blueprint is simple: speed FAU up and force them to defend in space, repeatedly, at USF’s tempo.

USF’s best path is creating a game that feels uncomfortable, one where FAU has to match runs, defend early offense, and handle extended stretches without being able to walk it up and set the table.

How FAU wins

FAU’s formula is the opposite: slow the game down, limit possessions, and keep USF from stacking made shots and rhythm threes.

The Owls’ shot-blocking presence also matters in a matchup where USF has had stretches of inconsistency inside the arc. If FAU can run USF off the three-point line and make the Bulls finish against length, that’s where the margin swings.

Final Thoughts + Prediction

With FAU sitting atop the AAC at 6-1 and USF close behind at 4-2, this one has real standings impact. For South Florida, it’s a chance to protect home court and close the gap. For Florida Atlantic, it’s an opportunity to keep momentum rolling and maintain separation at the top.

Prediction: South Florida Bulls.