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No. 11 Gonzaga vs No. 18 Kentucky: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction

Malachi Moreno of the Kentucky Wildcats holds the ball during a college basketball game.

No. 11 Gonzaga @ No. 18 Kentucky

Date: December 5, 2025

Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky

Time: 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2



How Do These Teams Match Up?


Gonzaga Bulldogs


Gonzaga enters Rupp Arena fresh off a stunning 40-point loss to Michigan, yet KenPom still rates the Bulldogs as a top-five team. Their offensive profile remains elite:


  • 13th in offensive efficiency

  • 9th in field-goal percentage

  • 1st in mid-range shooting percentage

  • +196 paint scoring differential


Despite ranking outside the top 175 in three-point percentage, Gonzaga compensates by dominating inside and thriving in the mid-range.


The Bulldogs’ frontcourt has been the backbone of their success:


  • Graham Ike: 15.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG

  • Braden Huff: 15.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG


This 1–2 post punch has overwhelmed nearly every opponent this season.


In the backcourt, freshman Mario Saint-Supery (8.6 PPG, 5.1 APG) has emerged as a poised playmaker and a capable open shooter, while Tyon Grant-Foster adds scoring versatility with 12.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG, giving Gonzaga balance at all levels.


Defensively, Gonzaga ranks 8th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. While strong across the board, their most significant vulnerability has been slowing elite opposing No. 1 options:


  • Yaxel Lendeborg: 20 pts, 11 reb

  • Xzayvier Brown: 21 pts

  • Labaron Philon Jr.: 29 pts



Kentucky Wildcats


Kentucky comes into this matchup after a narrow loss to UNC in which they shot just 8% from three, one of their coldest perimeter outings of the season. They sit 38th in offensive efficiency overall, but their identity revolves around interior scoring and balance:


  • 7th nationally in near-proximity FG% (Haslametrics)

  • Five players averaging double figures, none above 15 PPG


Their scoring depth is driven by guards Denzel Aberdeen, Collin Chandler, and Otega Oweh, each capable of taking over stretches. Down low, Malachi Moreno (10.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG) anchors the frontcourt and is one of the SEC’s better shot blockers.


Defensively, Kentucky has been ahead of its offense:


  • 13th in defensive efficiency

  • Top-10 in FG% defense and perimeter defense

  • Top-10 in near-proximity FG defense


Calipari’s group has excelled at forcing tough shots and disrupting rhythm.



Keys to the Game


For Gonzaga


  • Win the Paint: Kentucky’s Moreno is a strong interior defender, but the Wildcats don’t have the frontcourt depth to neutralize both Ike and Huff. If Gonzaga controls the paint as usual, the advantage swings their way.


  • Force Kentucky Into Hero Ball: Kentucky’s strength is its balance and system. If Gonzaga can pressure the guards into isolation and one-on-one decisions, the Wildcats become far less efficient.



For Kentucky


  • Frontcourt Support: Moreno can’t shoulder the entire load inside. Kentucky needs additional help defensively and on the glass to disrupt Gonzaga’s interior duo.


  • Make It a Defensive Battle: Kentucky won’t win a shootout. They need this game in the low 60s or upper 50s. Slowing the pace, limiting paint touches, and dragging Gonzaga into a grind-it-out style gives them their best chance.



Final Thoughts


Before the Michigan loss, Gonzaga sat No. 2 in KenPom, and this matchup has the feel of a potential trap game on the road. Kentucky, coming off a tough home loss to UNC, desperately needs a bounce-back showing in front of Rupp Arena.


Both teams defend at a high level; this game will come down to who wins the trenches.


Prediction: Gonzaga controls the interior, imposes its physicality, and proves too efficient around the rim.


Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Preciser
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