No. 3 Duke vs No. 19 Texas Tech: Preview, Matchups, and Prediction
- Joseph Klein
- Dec 20, 2025
- 3 min read
Date: December 20, 2025
Venue: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
TV: ESPN
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Records: (3) Duke (11–0) vs (19) Texas Tech (8–3)
Duke Overview
Duke enters undefeated and battle-tested with four ranked wins. Offensively, the Blue Devils have been highly efficient, ranking 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom) while sitting 5th in overall field-goal percentage.
Duke’s scoring profile is built more on inside-the-arc production than three-point volume. They’ve been solid but not elite from deep (102nd in 3PT%), yet they consistently generate quality looks in the paint and at the rim, 22nd in mid-range percentage and 10th in near-proximity percentage.
That interior success starts with freshman star Cameron Boozer (23.3 PPG, 10.2 RPG), who has been a dependable primary option. He’s complemented by Patrick Ngonba II (11.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG), whose size (6’11”, 250) and vertical spacing add a true lob/rim-pressure element. On the perimeter, Isaiah Evans (12.5 PPG) and Caleb Foster (9.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.8 APG) help balance the scoring.
Defensively, Duke has been dominant: 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing the 2nd-lowest opponent FG% nationally. They defend the arc well (13th in opponent 3PT%) and protect the rim at a high level (6th in near-proximity defense).
Texas Tech Overview
Texas Tech is 8–3, with all three losses coming to ranked opponents. Offensively, the Red Raiders have been productive (16th nationally), and their identity is clear: shoot it and space it. They rank 4th in three-point percentage and have also been effective finishing near the rim (28th in near-proximity percentage).
The headliner is JT Toppin (21.9 PPG, 10.6 RPG), who matches Boozer’s production and gives Tech a true go-to forward. Christian Anderson has been the engine (19.3 PPG, 7.3 APG) and has hit shots at volume (42.2% from three on 7.5 attempts per game). LeJuan Watts adds another scoring option (14.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG), while guards Donovan Atwell and Jaylen Petty provide depth, though overall depth remains a concern.
In the loss to Arkansas, Texas Tech leaned heavily on a short rotation, which could matter in a physical, high-intensity setting like MSG.
Defensively, Tech ranks 63rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders have struggled to consistently run teams off the three (outside the top 150 in opponent 3PT%), but the bigger issue in this matchup is inside: they rank 96th in near-proximity shots allowed, which is a tough profile against a Duke team that wants to live in the paint.
Keys for Duke
1) Win the paint battle: Tech has been vulnerable defending close-range shots, and Duke’s offense is built to exploit that.
2) Boozer vs Toppin is the fulcrum: Both teams can run offense through their star forward. The “winner” of this matchup likely tilts the game’s efficiency.
3) Make it physical and demanding: If Duke can keep the game fast, physical, and possession-heavy, Tech’s short rotation becomes a real risk, especially if foul trouble hits.
Keys for Texas Tech
1) Three-point shooting has to travel: Tech’s clearest path is turning this into a high-scoring game where spacing and shot-making neutralize Duke’s interior edge.
2) Get real minutes from someone outside the core: If the supporting cast can give reliable production, Tech can stay fresh enough to defend and rebound late.
Final thoughts
This game features one of the best forward matchups in the country: Boozer vs. Toppin, but the difference may be in the supporting cast and defensive consistency. Christian Anderson looms as the swing piece; if he’s creating advantages and hitting tough shots, Tech can hang around.
The formula is simple:
Duke: control the paint and defend without overhelping
Texas Tech: make threes at an elite rate and survive the depth battle
Duke is the more complete team on paper, and the matchup advantages (paint + defense + depth) favor the Blue Devils.
